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The Road to Unlocking During the COVID-19 Pandemic has Many Potholes Ahead
  • +2
  • Mike Stedman,
  • Mark Davies,
  • Mark Lunt,
  • Arpana Verma,
  • Adrian Heald
Mike Stedman
Res Consortium
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Mark Davies
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Arpana Verma
The University of Manchester
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Adrian Heald
Salford Royal Hospitals NHS Trust
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Abstract

The Facts COVID-19 is the disease associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2). The pandemic related to this virus has transformed life for billions of people across the globe. Using population based data from England, we recently showed a strong independent relation over time between our calculated R value for COVID-19 transmission and the number of cases identified as definitely positive in the population. We determined that 26.8% of the population of the United Kingdom (UK) possibly had been infected by late April 2020 approximating to 18.2 million people. Reflection Different modelling approaches give different answers to the question of how many people in the UK and elsewhere have actually been infected by COVID-19, which all would agree in epidemiological terms is behaving very differently from other Coronaviruses that we have seen in the past. We are learning more and more about this virus. National policy is changing rapidly and COIVD-19 antibody testing is increasingly being applied. This will facilitate better datasets from population based studies. The picture will become clearer as more data accrues over time.