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A Phased Approach to Unlocking During the Covid-19 pandemic - Lessons from Trend Analysis
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  • Mike Stedman,
  • Mark Davies,
  • Mark Lunt,
  • Arpana Verma,
  • Simon Andersen,
  • Adrian Heald
Mike Stedman
Res Consortium
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Mark Davies
Res Consortium
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Mark Lunt
The University of Manchester
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Arpana Verma
The University of Manchester
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Simon Andersen
University of West Indes
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Adrian Heald
Salford Royal Hospitals NHS Trust
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Abstract

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to radical political control of social behaviour. The purpose of this paper is to explore data trends from the pandemic regarding infection rates/policy impact, and draw learning points for informing the unlocking process. Methods The daily published cases in England in each of 149 Upper Tier Local Authority (UTLA) areas were converted to Average Daily Infection Rate(ADIR), an R-value - the number of further people infected by one infected person during their infectious phase with Rate of Change of Infection Rate(RCIR) also calculated. Stepwise regression was carried out to see what local factors could be linked to differences in local infection rates. Results By the 19th April 2020 the infection R has fallen from 2.8 on 23rd March before the lockdown and has stabilised at about 0.8 sufficient for suppression. However there remain significant variations between England regions. Regression analysis across UTLAs found that the only factor relating to reduction in ADIR was the historic number of confirmed number infection/000 population, There is however wide variation between Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLA) areas. Extrapolation of these results showed that unreported community infection may be >200 times higher than reported cases, providing evidence that by the end of the second week in April, 29% of the population may already have had the disease and so have increased immunity. Conclusion Analysis of current case data using infectious ratio has provided novel insight into the current national state and can be used to make better-informed decisions about future management of restricted social behaviour and movement.

Peer review status:ACCEPTED

27 Apr 2020Submitted to International Journal of Clinical Practice
28 Apr 2020Submission Checks Completed
28 Apr 2020Assigned to Editor
29 Apr 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
04 May 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
04 May 20201st Revision Received
05 May 2020Submission Checks Completed
05 May 2020Assigned to Editor
05 May 2020Reviewer(s) Assigned
05 May 2020Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
05 May 2020Editorial Decision: Accept