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A framework for leveraging animal movement to understand spatio-temporal disease dynamics
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  • Mark Wilber,
  • Anni Yang,
  • Raoul Boughton,
  • Kezia Manlove,
  • Ryan Miller,
  • Kim Pepin,
  • George Wittemyer
Mark Wilber
The University of Tennessee Knoxville Institute of Agriculture
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Anni Yang
USDA-APHIS National Wildlife Research Center
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Raoul Boughton
Archbold Biological Station
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Kezia Manlove
Utah State University
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Ryan Miller
United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Veterinary Services, Center for Epidemiology and Animal Health
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Kim Pepin
United States Department of Agriculture Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
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George Wittemyer
Colorado State University
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Abstract

The ongoing explosion of fine-resolution movement data in animal systems provides a unique opportunity to empirically quantify spatial, temporal, and individual variation in transmission risk and improve our ability to forecast disease outbreaks. However, we lack a generalizable framework that can leverage movement data to quantify transmission risk and how it affects pathogen invasion and persistence on heterogeneous landscapes. We developed a flexible framework “Movement-driven modeling of spatio-temporal infection risk” (MoveSTIR) that leverages diverse data on animal movement to derive metrics of direct and indirect contact by decomposing transmission into constituent processes of contact formation and duration and pathogen deposition and acquisition. We use MoveSTIR to demonstrate that ignoring fine-scale animal movements on actual landscapes can mis-characterize transmission risk and epidemiological dynamics. MoveSTIR unifies previous work on epidemiological contact networks and can address applied and theoretical questions at the nexus of movement and disease ecology.

Peer review status:IN REVISION

29 Oct 2021Submitted to Ecology Letters
29 Oct 2021Assigned to Editor
29 Oct 2021Submission Checks Completed
17 Nov 2021Reviewer(s) Assigned
23 Dec 2021Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
27 Dec 2021Editorial Decision: Revise Major